ViewDAO
Start with the baseline: Bitcoin closed 2024 at $99,800. A 0.2% move gets you there. But that's not the interesting part. The interesting part is velocity. Bitcoin has a four-year halving cycle. Each halving cuts miner rewards in half, which constrains supply while demand typically accelerates into the event. The last halving was April 2024. Historically, the 12-18 months following a halving see the strongest bull runs. That window doesn't close until late 2025, early 2026—exactly when institutional capital tends to reposition ahead of tax year and allocation season. We're not in uncharted territory. We're in a known pattern that has worked three times already.
Institutional adoption has crossed a threshold. The SEC approved Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, and by November that year, Bitcoin ETF inflows had exceeded $20 billion. Compare that to gold ETFs, which took years to accumulate that volume. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone holds over $30 billion in AUM as of Q4 2024. Fidelity's offering is similarly sized. These aren't boutique products anymore. They're mainstream infrastructure. When a pension fund or endowment buys Bitcoin now, they don't buy futures or grayscale trusts—they buy the spot product through the same account they use for equities. Friction has disappeared. That changes the base case for inflows.
Macroeconomic conditions support it. The US debt trajectory is unsustainable. Federal spending is running $1.8 trillion above revenues annually. The Fed may cut rates further or, conversely, be forced to maintain higher rates for longer than historical precedent suggests is comfortable. Either scenario—deflation or currency debasement—favors hard assets. Bitcoin's fixed supply (21 million coins) becomes more valuable in either case. Gold is already trading near all-time highs around $2,100 per ounce. If gold continues higher (a reasonable bet given fiscal headwinds), Bitcoin—which has higher volatility and lower base adoption—should see amplified upside.
Here's what often gets missed: the stock-to-flow model isn't dead, just misunderstood. The original model, proposed by PlanB, predicted $100,000 Bitcoin would arrive around 2021. It was too early by four years, and critics declared it broken. But the core mechanic—that scarcity drives long-term price appreciation—still holds. Post-halving, Bitcoin's annual new supply drops to 3.125 coins per 10-minute block, or roughly 164,250 BTC per year. Against that, spot ETFs are now absorbing 10,000-20,000 BTC monthly in some periods. At current absorption rates, inflows could exceed annual supply. That's not sustainable forever, but it's a real dynamic that pushes price higher until it stops. We're maybe 12-18 months away from that inflection.
Politics matter here too, though carefully. The incoming administration has expressed openness to Bitcoin and crypto policy. A clearer regulatory framework—say, classification of Bitcoin as a commodity rather than property for tax purposes—would unlock corporate and institutional treasury adoption that's currently stalled. Michael Saylor's Microstrategy has accumulated 252,000 Bitcoin (as of Q4 2024) as a treasury strategy. Other S&P 500 companies are watching. If even 5% of the S&P 500 adopted a similar stance, we'd need an additional 1 million Bitcoin, which is 5% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. At any reasonable price curve, that math doesn't work without a substantial repricing upward.
The bear case isn't trivial. Regulatory crackdowns remain possible. A major exchange hack or fraud (unlikely given current security standards, but not impossible) could spook retail demand. Geopolitical shock—real conflict in Eastern Europe or the Taiwan Strait—could drive capital to government bonds rather than alternative assets. A sharp recession could force institutional redemptions. These aren't reasons to dismiss the $100K thesis; they're reasons to expect volatility and to understand your conviction.
But the base case is stronger than it's been in any previous Bitcoin cycle. Supply is lower. Demand infrastructure is better. Macro conditions are supportive. Timing is tight—we're not talking 2027 or 2028; we're talking the next 12-14 months. Bitcoin doesn't need to moonshot. It needs to retrace to where it was trading three weeks before the new year. That's not a prediction. That's a restatement of fact.