We recently spoke with the pseudonymous trader and researcher @crypto_condom about their transition from mining to trading, their thesis on the energy and defence sectors, and why they believe the traditional altcoin cycle is broken.
Starting as a hobbyist miner in 2019, CC built a substantial operation of GPU rigs before selling the top in 2020 to focus on full-time trading. Known for their blunt market commentary and focus on fundamental analysis over hype, they have built a reputation for spotting consensus traps and identifying long-term structural shifts.
In this interview, CC breaks down why they believe ETH is dragging, why energy and defence are the trades of the decade, and a bold prediction for how crypto companies will exit to traditional markets in 2026.
Read more about their approach to avoiding "grand gesture" marketing signals and surviving the current market structure below.
🦙💬How did you first get involved in crypto, and what drew you to it initially? Was there a specific event or project that hooked you?
As a hobby, I started mining BTC on an old S19 in my office at work. The mining community was very supportive of newcomers, and I credit the BitcoinMining subreddit for much of my early knowledge. It was a natural evolution to start mining Ethereum too.
I built a large 40-unit rig of RTX 2070s in 2019. By late 2020, my rig had doubled in value due to rising GPU costs, so I sold it for the ROI and moved into trading.
🦙💬Your handle is unique. What's the story behind it, and how has it shaped your online persona?
Honestly? The troglodyte and I were drinking good wine one night and started coming up with the most absurd usernames we could think of to publish my research on X or Reddit. Hence, crypto_condom was born.
🦙💬You’ve recently warned about consensus. What signs do you look for when a trade becomes too crowded?
I consider a consensus trade one where everyone, TradFi and CT alike, begins to pile in. Positive funding and 24-hour trading volume exceeding market cap are key indicators.
Also, "grand gesture" marketing events, such as advertising on the Sphere, are all signs of euphoria and consensus in my book.
🦙💬You're long on $ET and considering shorts like $ADBE due to AI disruption. How do you balance crypto trades with traditional stock plays?
I keep the two portfolios completely separate. My equities portfolio is in a tax-free account, so I can be more aggressive with taking profits, whereas crypto is subject to capital gains tax, which weighs on the portfolio.
Regardless, my time in crypto has taught me to be disciplined about taking profits, which has often saved me from hubris and greed.
🦙💬You've shared tools like @DefiLlama for tracking liquidations. What are your go-to resources or indicators for spotting opportunities or risks?
For any token I am interested in, I track fundamentals such as revenue, emissions, and growth. Ccap also monitors the deployers and major token holder wallets of tokens we are invested in to detect any untoward events.
I have subscriptions to DefiLlama Pro, Arkham, Nansen, and Bubblemaps. I consider all of them essential for good fundamental analysis.
🦙💬You've been vocal about ETH's ongoing weakness, which could drag it to $1300-1500. What key factors do you see driving that, and how does it compare to BTC's path lower?
I think the DATs changed the game for crypto this cycle. They are a cancer on the industry because they are essentially leverage in the system. Volatility has increased because of their buying and now their selling.
ETH is a less mature asset class than Bitcoin. It is very much a bull-market, risk-on token. Even though it is good tech, it acts as BTC beta to the downside. Current liquidations and leverage strongly suggest we remain below 2k and could go lower if equities puke.
$1300 to $1500 is a sweet spot where much of the leverage from funds, DATs, and whales can be removed to make the market healthier and more attractive to investors.
🦙💬With macroeconomic data like ISM influencing your views (as seen in your appreciation for Benjamin Cowen's objective takes), how do you incorporate broader economic signals into crypto trading without overcomplicating it?
ISM has never influenced my views. I am too dumb to interpret it, so I stick to simpler metrics. I prefer to be guided by the 10-year rates and the MOVE index as predictors of possible crypto and risk asset price action.
🦙💬You've noted how "alt season soon" calls aren't real analysis. What's a better way for newcomers to evaluate narratives and avoid getting rekt by hype cycles?
In all maturing markets, two things will decline: early nepotism and speculative valuations. For the most part, alts are extractive, overvalued, and without utility.
As TradFi has entered the space, fundamental analysis of alts based on revenue, growth, and utility has resulted in a re-rating of the market segment.
I firmly believe that the prices of most altcoins will continue to re-rate lower as dilution from emissions, the lack of fundamental revenue and moat, and extractive marketing cause retail traders to become jaded and disinterested.
🦙💬If crypto is too mature, what changes, like better revenue models for DEX/CEX or less reliance on volatility, do you see as essential in the next cycle?
I do not believe that zero-fee DEXs can compete with @HyperliquidX because of VC interests and lower overall revenues that support token buybacks.
I would like to see more innovation in the space, particularly in UI and UX improvements, which remain poor across most CEXs and DEXs. IMO, Coinbase is the most egregious trading interface known to man.
🦙💬You've been a longtime Rollbit bull since the early days of the Solana ecosystem. What initially made you see potential in the project, and why do you remain bullish on Rollbit and $RLB today?
@rollbit has been around for five years. They have neither rugged nor faded in that time. I believe one of crypto’s major use cases is gambling, and the Rollbit casino caters to that with three products: casino games, sports betting, and crypto perps trading.
Rollbit has consistently demonstrated strong revenues and a moat over the years since it has been live. The RLB token is a direct beneficiary of their growth, as it is transparently bought on-chain and then burned, reducing the token supply by over 60% to date.
This buy-and-burn token mechanism allows for slow but steady value accrual for token holders while preserving capital, since gambling is ubiquitous in bull or bear markets.
🦙💬You've shared your 2026 portfolio, which focuses on energy, defence, and robotics. What are your top sector picks that you think will take off in the coming years, and what key catalysts make you most bullish on them?
I think energy and defence will be the two sectors that perform best in the coming year, while robotics will do best in three to five years. Energy is a no-brainer. To subsidise machine learning, we need to upgrade the existing energy infrastructure to make it more cost-effective and efficient.
To me, this means nuclear power, which is why I have been a long-term investor in uranium. Furthermore, the world is getting smaller and more volatile every day. The economics of global investing dictate that there are no large, isolated markets anymore.
Political unrest in one corner of the world will ripple through markets on the other side of the globe. As G7 members become more isolationist, we will likely see larger budgets for defence and defence infrastructure.
This is especially true in the EU, where reliance on US weaponry is now a liability. As of today, the current defence infrastructure is from the 1970s and is ill-equipped to deal with the modern realities of drone warfare, acoustic weaponry, and AI-guided intelligent weapon systems.
🦙💬Gun to your head, which three crypto assets would you choose to hold long-term right now, and what makes each one stand out in this volatile market?
Bitcoin, Rollbit, and Ethereum.
🦙💬Looking ahead, what's one bold prediction for crypto in 2026 that might surprise your followers?
I believe 2026 is the year crypto-native companies will begin transitioning into traditional markets through IPOs. In the case of good projects, value accrual will occur to token holders by converting tokens into pre-IPO equity shares.
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